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Conservation Biology

Wiley

Preprints posted in the last 30 days, ranked by how well they match Conservation Biology's content profile, based on 14 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.01% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Correcting overprediction reduces the propagation of uncertainty from species distribution models into spatial conservation prioritization

Cavalcante, T.; Si-Moussi, S.; Tzivanopoulos, M.; Hoareau, M.; Thuiller, W.; Kujala, H.

2026-05-21 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.19.726420 medRxiv
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Effective conservation planning increasingly relies on species distribution models (SDMs) to guide where actions deliver the greatest biodiversity benefits through spatial conservation prioritization. However, SDMs are inherently uncertain, and this uncertainty propagates through prioritization processes, affecting the identification of priority areas and influencing conservation decisions. Here, we evaluate whether correcting SDM overprediction reduces uncertainty propagation into spatial conservation prioritization. Using two large European datasets of vertebrates and invertebrates, we compared unconstrained SDMs with models corrected for overprediction through a Bayesian integration of occurrences, expert range maps, and habitat suitability. We found that overprediction correction reduced spatial and performance uncertainty, with uncertainty strongly structured by model and algorithm choice and amplified when overprediction was not corrected. Although no single modelling adjustment fully eliminates uncertainty propagation from SDMs into prioritization, we demonstrate that overprediction correction consistently reduces it across datasets, taxa, and modelling approaches, highlighting its importance for robust conservation planning.

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Future-proofing agrobiodiversity: climate and niche-aware conservation planning using reinforcement learning.

Butikofer, L.; Silvestro, D.; Rubio Teso, L.; Molina, A.; Lara Romero, C.; Garcia Valdes, R.; Broenniman, O.; Iriondo, J. M.; Guisan, A.; Petitpierre, B.; Aubry, S.

2026-05-07 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.04.722509 medRxiv
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Despite substantial global commitments to expand protected-area networks, the strategic allocation of limited resources remains challenging. Spatial conservation planning helps identify priority regions that maximise conservation benefits per unit area. Yet, they also tend to neglect two fundamental aspects of conservation: climate-driven range shifts and the representation of environmentally distinct populations within species. Here, we propose a continental-scale conservation planning framework that explicitly accounts for both processes through novel routines implemented in the conservation planning software CAPTAIN. We apply this framework to European crop wild relatives (CWR), for which niche coverage is a focal priority, as it underpins their potential to support agricultural adaptation to future environmental stressors through breeding programs. Comparative analyses on a subset of 186 CWR associated with five focal crops show that accounting for range shifts and niche coverage leads to substantially different conservation priorities from those obtained with a baseline model based on current distributions only. These additions reduced the number of non-protected species by 64%, increased the average protected distribution range by 43%, increased mean niche coverage from 75.8% to 84.5% and reduced the number of species with less than half of their niche protected from 35 to 10. Applied to a more comprehensive checklist of 1,140 European CWRs, the final framework identifies continental-scale priority areas representing 93.5% of these taxa and includes 94.4% of its critically endangered species. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating both temporal dynamics and within-species environmental representation when designing conservation strategies under climate change. RepositoryThe repository will be made publicly accessible after publication at doi: https://10.5281/zenodo.19855597

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A prioritization strategy for protecting Conservation Imperatives Sites

Gosling, J.; Dinerstein, E.; Joshi, A. R.; Burgess, N. D.; Mellin, H.; Joppa, L.; Bingham, H. C.; McDermott-Long, O.; Upton, J.

2026-05-05 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.01.721008 medRxiv
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To prevent species extinctions, targeted action must focus on areas of threatened biodiversity facing intense human pressures. This objective is even more important in the run-up to 2030, the target date to conserve 30% of lands and waters globally. Conservation Imperatives (unprotected terrestrial sites that harbour rare, range-restricted, and threatened species) are critical to preventing imminent species losses. To prioritize among the 16,825 Conservation Imperatives Sites spanning 1.64 million km2, we ranked each site using a prioritization framework based on four criteria: number of threatened species per site; irreplaceability of the site; the proportion of an ecoregions remaining habitat contained in the site; and conversion pressure. Our approach prioritizes 1,667 sites representing 501,426 km2, or 0.37% of Earths terrestrial surface, most in need of urgent protection, with 87.34% of these sites occurring in 20 countries and in 250 ecoregions. This prioritization directly addresses the concern that protected areas must be targeted to protect endangered species, habitats and populations: 33.46% of the prioritized Conservation Imperatives Sites scored higher in irreplaceability than 90% of existing protected areas. Additionally, 51.53% are within 2.5 km2 of an existing protected area, making extending protection or restoring connectivity more feasible. Targeting conservation actions, especially in this small set of countries and ecoregions identified here, would contribute "high quality" areas for biodiversity as part of reaching the 30% coverage target by 2030.

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Global vertebrate hotspots

Farooq, H.; Harfoot, M.; Rahbek, C.; Visconti, P.; Geldmann, J.

2026-05-14 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.13.724836 medRxiv
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Effective biodiversity conservation requires tools that can identify priority areas under growing human pressures. Building on the concept of global biodiversity hotspots, we present a transparent and repeatable approach to mapping conservation priorities using data for 33,604 species of terrestrial vertebrates from the IUCN Red List. This framework expands the taxonomic scope of previous efforts and integrates updated information on key human-driven threats to biodiversity. We identify that around 13% of Earths terrestrial surface qualifies as vertebrate conservation hotspots, often shaped by distinct combinations of species groups and threats. These results highlight the need for tailored, context-specific conservation strategies. By providing a robust method to guide spatial prioritization, our work supports more effective implementation of conservation targets in a rapidly changing world.

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The Biodiversity of Africa in the Digital Genomics Era: A Systematic Analysis of Institutional Gaps and Benefit-Sharing Trajectories under the Cali Fund.

Shema, Y.; Sinyangwe, S.; Ayodele, F. A.

2026-05-20 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.18.725948 medRxiv
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BackgroundA structural governance failure sits at the intersection of international biodiversity law and the digital genomics revolution. The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) and the Nagoya Protocol on Access and Benefit-Sharing (ABS) were designed to ensure that countries of biological origin share equitably in commercial benefits from their genetic resources. Critically, these instruments apply exclusively to non-human genetic resources: plants, animals, fungi, and microbiota. Human genetic resources are deliberately excluded from the CBD and Nagoya ABS framework and are governed separately through bioethics instruments, including the World Health Organization (WHO) framework and the Declaration of Helsinki. This study focuses on non-human digital sequence information (DSI), nucleotide and protein sequence data derived from non-human organisms deposited in open-access databases, which underpins industries generating over USD 1.56 trillion in annual revenue. Africa, hosting approximately 25% of global terrestrial species and nine of the worlds 36 biodiversity hotspots, provides a disproportionate share of the genetic resources from which non-human DSI is derived, yet receives negligible monetary returns because digitisation severs the traceability chain that ABS governance requires. Human genomic data is presented here solely as a secondary indicator of Africas broader infrastructure; it does not constitute the legal basis for Africas modelled allocation share under the Cali Fund. ObjectivesThis study systematically characterises (i) Africas non-human biodiversity endowment as the basis for Cali Fund claims; (ii) ABS governance readiness across 54 African Union (AU) member states; (iii) the commercial trajectories of non-human DSI-dependent industries and projected Cali Fund benefit-sharing flows; and (iv) Africas human genomic representation as a secondary infrastructure indicator, explicitly distinguished from the non-human DSI benefit-sharing argument. MethodsA structured evidence synthesis was conducted following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) 2020 reporting elements, where applicable to a secondary data analysis design. Literature was searched across PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Google Scholar, and official repositories of the CBD, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The search was restricted to January 2022 - April 2026 to capture post-Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (KMGBF) literature. A total of 412 records were identified before screening; 34 peer-reviewed articles and 19 institutional documents met all inclusion criteria. Quantitative Cali Fund scenario modelling used the United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC) and KPMG (2024) non-human DSI sector revenue baseline (CBD/WGDSI/2/2/Add.2). The 12.5% net profit margin is a cross-sector proxy from that study; actual margins vary by sector. Africas modelled allocation share (20-25%) is the authors analytical construct based on Africas non-human species richness and hotspot share; it is not an internationally agreed formula. ResultsAfricas non-human biodiversity endowment is exceptional: 25% of terrestrial species, nine of 36 biodiversity hotspots, and the worlds second-largest tropical forest system. Non-human DSI from African genetic resources is a critical input to industries generating USD 1.56 trillion annually, yet Africa contributes a marginal and unmeasured fraction of International Nucleotide Sequence Database Collaboration (INSDC) sequences. As a secondary indicator, 94.48% of genome-wide association study (GWAS) participants as of 2024 were of European ancestry (Corpas et al., 2025); this human genomic data is presented for contextual illustration only and is not the basis for Africas Cali Fund modelled allocation share. Zero African Union member states have enacted legislation explicitly covering non-human DSI in their ABS framework. Africas modelled allocation share ranges from USD 312 million (Scenario A, 20% weight) to USD 5.83 billion (Scenario C, 25% weight) annually. ConclusionsAfrica is among the most biologically rich continents on Earth for non-human life, yet structurally excluded from the benefit-sharing framework the CBD intended to create. The Cali Fund represents the first mechanism capable of correcting this at scale. Realising Africas modelled allocation share requires urgent legislative reform, institutional capacity investment, sequencing infrastructure development, and a coordinated African position at COP17 scheduled in Yerevan, October 2026.

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Exploring sources of uncertainty in the estimate of waterfowl harvest in the United Kingdom

Ellis, M. B.; Lewis, H. M.; Cameron, T. C.

2026-05-14 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.13.724812 medRxiv
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There is an urgent need to gather data on harvest rates of waterbirds in Europe to assess the sustainability of hunting. Estimates of total waterbird harvest in the United Kingdom (UK) and the relative harvest of different huntable species come from two separate surveys, the Value of Shooting (PACEC 2014) and National Gamebag Census (NGC, Aebischer 2019), and these have been recently used to explore the likelihood of unsustainable harvests of wild waterbirds by UK hunters (Ellis and Cameron 2022; Madden et al., 2025). The reliability of these sustainability estimates depends on how representative the original surveys are of hunter behaviour and success. There are also 1-3 million released game-farm mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) that takes up considerable and unquantified proportions of the UK waterbird harvest. Here we explore uncertainties in the UK winter harvest of wild waterfowl by comparing estimates from the NGC dataset with those from the Crown Estate coastal hunting clubs, and a novel approach using analysis of social-media images (2019/20 to 2023/24). We explore the difference in species-specific harvest with and without the uncertainties in the number of released mallard and the total number of duck harvested in the UK. Waterbird harvest estimates differ markedly depending on the input dataset and whether released mallard are included in the analysis. Confidence intervals of each estimate are inflated by uncertainties in the number of released game-farm mallard contributing to, and the size of that national bag. Estimates extrapolated from social media suggest the national harvest of several species may be considerably larger than the corresponding NGC estimates (e.g. Teal *2.07 and gadwall *11.2), while mallard harvests away from formal shoots represented by NGC are significantly lower (*0.71). Excluding released mallard reduces the statistical estimate of total wild duck harvest by 56-63%, which would have biologically significant effects if realised.

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A data-driven redefinition of global biodiversity hotspots

Liu, X.; Lindenmayer, D.; Chapman, C. A.; Garber, P. A.; Li, R.; Grueter, C. C.; Wu, R.; Yang, Y.

2026-05-11 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.07.721789 medRxiv
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The 36 global biodiversity hotspots harbor a disproportionate share of the worlds endemic species, making their conservation critical for planetary health. Traditionally hotspots were defined as ecoregions with [≥]1,500 endemic vascular plant species and >70% natural habitat loss; this relied heavily on expert judgment, with subjective assessments of endemism and habitat loss applied. Challenges in defining endemism, quantifying habitat loss, and the global unevenness in available vascular plant data have hindered hotspot identification over the past decades. Here, we built a global dataset of 150,487 rare vascular plants, identified from 88.1% of the worlds known vascular species, and recognize hotspots based on their richness using three complementary conservation targets and algorithms. We then quantified natural habitat loss and habitat fragmentation using high-resolution remote sensing data and assessed the diversity and distribution of terrestrial vertebrates within these newly identified hotspots. Our data-driven method recovered all the 36 established global biodiversity hotspots, revised 17, and identified 11 new hotspots spanning diverse ecosystems across six continents. These 47 hotspots cover 26.63% of global land area, yet contain 83.8% of rare vascular plants, 92.4% of mammals, 96.1% of birds, 87.8% of reptiles, and 95.0% of amphibians. Collectively, they encompass >89% of terrestrial vertebrates classified as IUCN threatened species. Only 10 hotspots have undergone [≥]70% habitat loss, and the lack of a consistent relationship with habitat fragmentation suggests that this criterion is not globally applicable. Effectively protecting [~]27% of Earths land could theoretically safeguard >89.8% of threatened terrestrial species and >67% of threatened terrestrial species hotspot area, assuming effective protection of the identified biodiversity hotspots. Targeted conservation efforts within these global biodiversity hotspots can meet the established biodiversity targets of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework as well as post-2030 biodiversity targets. Most importantly, our framework enables conservation scientists to iteratively identify and update global biodiversity hotspots in step with growing global biodiversity data.

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The dispersal of released pheasants and the risk of their intrusion into English protected areas

Madden, J. R.; Sage, R. B.; Wilde, J. A.

2026-05-07 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.04.722670 medRxiv
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Large-scale annual releases of pheasants Phasianus colchicus and their subsequent management for recreational shooting create various ecological impacts in the UK. While effects at release sites are fairly well understood, dispersing birds may influence areas farther away. If they enter ecologically important but sensitive protected areas (PAs), any negative impacts could be especially harmful. Using tracking data, from 766 birds across 10 sites, we estimated survival and dispersal of released pheasants and applied these patterns to gamebird release records near English PAs to gauge intrusion risk. Of 2,885 registered release sites, just over half lay within 2 km of a PA. A large number of shoots release relatively few birds while a small number release many birds. Thus, numbers expected to enter a particular PA likely depend both on the size of releases and proximity to the PA. We estimate that, at a national level, a maximum of between 525,000 and 784,000 pheasants might be found within PAs very soon after release, representing around 1.7% of all the pheasants released annually. This number declines over the months after release until in February, we estimate that there are between 131,000 and 196,000 pheasants (0.4% of the total release) might be found within PAs. The critical metric by which ecological damage might occur is their density within PAs. Mean densities soon after release averaged 12.0 birds/ha in PAs within 250 m of release sites. This density declined markedly both in time (as birds died) and space (as they moved further from the pen as potential areas increased). By November, densities in PAs 500-1000m from release sites peaked at 0.5 birds/ha, falling to 0.16 birds/ha in February. These estimated densities are around two orders of magnitude lower than those known to cause strong, lasting impacts within release pens. The results are subject to assumptions about movement behaviour, game management and bias in registration. Despite these constraints, considerable local variation exists, with a minority of high-volume release sites very near PAs posing the greatest potential ecological risk.

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Explainable AI reveals the quantitative hierarchical architecture of global bird extinction risk

Medrano-Vizcaino, P.; Sen, A.; Marchiafava, A.

2026-05-21 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.18.726070 medRxiv
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Identifying what makes species vulnerable to extinction requires accounting for complex biological and environmental interactions. Due to their high predictive accuracy, machine learning methods have been widely used for these assessments; however, relying on black-box models offers limited interpretability. Here, using a comprehensive dataset of anthropogenic, ecological, morphological, demographic, and biogeographical variables from 9,053 species (81% of birds worldwide), we applied Inductive Logic Programming (ILP), an explainable artificial intelligence framework, to generate explicit and quantitative IF-THEN rules with confidence scores for bird extinction risk. Our approach revealed that extinction vulnerability follows a hierarchical structure, shaped by interactions among range size, morphological traits, and human pressures. The framework recovered well-established knowledge, while also revealing previously undescribed extinction patterns. For example, consistent with prior evidence, species with geographic ranges below [~]13,500 km{superscript 2} were identified as higher risk (88% confidence). Nevertheless, this threshold shifted to [~]3,270 km{superscript 2} when human impacts were removed, revealing quantitatively how anthropogenic activities expand the pool of vulnerable species beyond those at risk due to biological and biogeographical traits alone. Beyond established patterns, species with tail length >304 mm were identified as higher risk (82% confidence), a pattern not previously documented. ILP models achieved 91% overall accuracy, slightly lower than Random Forest (93%), but notably better than Neural Networks (83%). These results show that ILP can offer high accuracy results with full interpretability, also providing quantitative transition thresholds that clarify the structural architecture of extinction risk, and translate complex ecological interactions into actionable tools for conservation.

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A spatial analysis of Common Pheasant (Phasianus colchicus) abundance with reference to Protected Area coverage in England

Wilde, J. A.; Ozsanlav-Harris, L.; Madden, J.

2026-05-08 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.06.722883 medRxiv
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The release of tens of millions of common pheasants (Phasianus colchicus) across the UK for shooting may pose an ecological risk to native species and sensitive habitats, particularly if the birds move into protected areas (PAs) such as Special Areas of Conservation (SAC), Special Protection Areas (SPA), and Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI). The extent of this ecological risk depends on the abundance of pheasants in these sensitive sites, especially if they are attracted there after the shooting season when game management efforts to retain the birds cease. We used relative pheasant abundance measures derived from British Trust for Ornithology bird atlas data from 3793 2km tetrads across four English counties (Berkshire, Cornwall, Devon, and Hertfordshire) to determine if pheasants preferentially disperse into or reside in areas with greater PA coverage. We analysed relative abundance in both the winter shooting season and the breeding season using a Bayesian occupancy-abundance model, controlling for habitat type and diversity. Our results showed a strong influence of habitat on pheasant abundance, consistent with known habitat preferences. However, we found no evidence of a relationship between relative pheasant abundance and the proportion of ecologically relevant PA coverage in a tetrad. This lack of a relationship was consistent across all four counties and across both the winter and breeding seasons. Our finding suggests that common pheasants do not preferentially disperse into or reside in protected areas compared to surrounding, unprotected land, suggesting that the ecological impacts caused by released pheasants are no more likely to occur in protected areas than in non-protected areas.

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Genomic Footprints of Bottlenecks, Isolation, and Inbreeding: A Case Study of Two Vulture Cohorts in India

Shukla, M.; Bohra, D. L.; Rao, B.; Narayan, L.; Kiran, S.; Thakur, V.

2026-05-05 genomics 10.64898/2026.04.30.721611 medRxiv
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Genomic erosion as a manifestation of small effective population size (Ne) and consanguinity subverts long-term perpetuation of threatened species by compromising their adaptive potential; however, the integration of genomics remains limited in applied conservation efforts to guide priorities. This study combines non-invasive sampling, double-digest Restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (ddRAD), and population-genomic analyses to assess genetic health in two vulture assemblages-mixed wild enclosure and captive breeding cohorts. Both the geographical locations exhibit signs of populations in distress: low genetic diversity and abundant intermediate-length runs of homozygosity (RoH), consistent with long-term reduced Ne plus recent demographic isolation. Our demographic model runs favoured ancient migration (AM) topology characterised by an ephemeral window of gene flow, taken over by a prolonged population separation period. The mutation quantification results from approximately 59,000 outgroup-polarised SNPs reveal higher additive burden and more homozygous-derived sites in BKN. However, this was later traced to low-impact and non-coding variants rather than a surge in the loss-of-function (LoF) alleles. The data support a genomic profile that carries an elevated risk from polygenic/aggregate deleterious burden in BKN despite a scarcity of high-impact mutations. By highlighting the disconnect between genetic resilience and demographic recovery, our results accentuate the need to incorporate genomics-informed inbreeding and monitoring programs, while also focusing on reducing anthropogenic mortality with genetic augmentation.

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Genomic indicators of risk and resilience in global leatherback turtle populations

Osipova, E.; Dutton, P. H.; Bentley, B. P.; Alvarez-Costes, S.; Phillips, K. F.; Adkins, J.; Agyekumhene, A.; Allman, P.; Barragan Rocha, A. R.; Chacon-Chaverri, D.; Duffy, D. J.; Formia, A.; Frey, A.; Gaos, A.; Hamilton, R.; Horne, J. B.; Honarvar, S.; LaCasella, E. L.; Lontoh, D.; Nel, R.; Ortega, A.; Pakiding, F.; Prasetyo, A. P.; Sarti Martinez, A. L.; Piedra-Chacon, R.; Tiwari, M.; Stewart, K. R.; Thome, J. C. A.; Velez-Carballo, E.; Martin, S. L.; Alexander, A.; Wallace, B. P.; Komoroske, L. M.

2026-05-16 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.15.725529 medRxiv
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Understanding the drivers of genomic health and their consequences for population viability is often overlooked but potentially important to effective conservation amidst the biodiversity crisis of the Anthropocene. Leatherback turtle (Dermochelys coriacea) populations have declined globally due to anthropogenic factors, with some populations losing over 90% of their abundance over the past 30-50 years. While conservation efforts have been successful in stabilizing some populations, others continue to decline, and the reasons for these differential trajectories remain unclear. To assess how recent demographic factors, such as population size and decline, influence population genomic health, we combined population monitoring information with medium depth whole-genome and reduced representation resequencing data from globally representative populations. We found that small-stable populations have lower genomic diversity and higher inbreeding than large declining populations, reflecting prolonged small population sizes and limited gene flow. Yet, small-stable populations also show evidence of deleterious allele purging, suggesting genetic resilience. This, combined with lack of detectable genomic erosion over the study period, provides hope for potential recovery of healthy leatherback populations provided that anthropogenic threats are effectively mitigated. However, potential time lags and possible recent increases in inbreeding among close relatives in recently declined populations warrant continued monitoring and assessment. Genomic and abundance-based metrics were less aligned following rapid population declines, emphasizing the different timescales of the evolutionary and demographic processes they reflect, respectively, and the strength in their complementary, integrative use for extinction risk assessments. This also supports that it is not too late to turn the tide for recently declined leatherback populations and that continued investment in conservation efforts and threat reductions are warranted. Collectively, our results highlight how recent and historical demography shapes current genomic health and recovery potential in leatherback turtles, aids understanding of current risks and informs future conservation and management strategies.

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Addressing Data Fragmentation in Biodiversity: A Workflow for integrated Species Distribution Models

Perrin, S. W.; Adjei, K. P.; Mostert, P.; Togunov, R. R.; Herfindal, I.; Topper, J. P.; Grytnes, J.-A.; Chipperfield, J.; O'Hara, R. B.; Finstad, A. G.

2026-05-21 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.19.721053 medRxiv
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AimA comprehensive understanding of the spatial distribution of biodiversity is hindered by fragmented datasets, sampling biases, and inconsistent observation protocols. Here, we present a workflow that integrates disparate datasets to produce large scale maps of biodiversity metrics as a basis for management-relevant information tools. We use integrated species distribution modeling (iSDM) to account for sampling biases and disparate data collection techniques, taking advantage of the vast numbers of open datasets available in data aggregators like GBIF. LocationNorway (excluding Svalbard and Jan Mayen) TaxonVascular plants MethodsThe workflow consists of four main steps: data acquisition, data integration, integrated species distribution modelling (iSDM), and the production of derived outputs. Input data include structured surveys, opportunistic observations, and environmental covariates. These are standardised and integrated into a point-processed based iSDM framework to produce species richness maps, associated uncertainties, and sampling effort maps. The outputs are further processed to identify biodiversity hotspots or to summarise species-environment relationships. The workflow used vascular plant data from Norway, combining occurrence-only and presence-absence datasets with environmental covariates. Outputs were generated at a spatial resolution of 500 x 500 meters, balancing accuracy, computational feasibility and relevance for management decisions. High-performance computing resources were utilized for model fitting and predictions. A subset of available data was used to validate the species richness maps. ResultsWe produced detailed maps of species richness, uncertainties and sampling intensity across Norways heterogeneous landscape, incorporating 1218 species in our final results. The species richness patterns highlight patterns consistent with previous mapping efforts. Validation showed an increase in model accuracy when compared to models which did not use an iSDM framework. The workflow highlights limitations in the infrastructure of the currently openly accessible data, particularly the need for more structured presence-absence datasets and standardized metadata. Main conclusionsThis study underscores the potential of workflows that integrate disparate datasets for biodiversity modeling. To maximize accuracy and utility, future efforts should focus on improving data standardization, the publication and collection of more structured data, and fostering data-sharing collaborations. Advances in the workflow itself, including optimising modelling covariates and integrating more comprehensive spatio-temporal aspects, will also increase the relevance of the outputs. These advances will increase our ability to estimate species richness with a precision and accuracy that can reliably inform conservation and management decisions.

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Landscape heterogeneity as a main driver of avian population dynamics

Malinowska, K.; Chodkiewicz, T.; Kuczynski, L.

2026-05-21 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.19.726359 medRxiv
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The ongoing decline in biodiversity highlights the need for understanding the causes of population changes. This study uses 25-year, large-scale monitoring dataset to investigate the influence of climate and landscape structure on the annual population growth rates of 84 bird species across Poland. Our methodological framework involves the spatiotemporal decomposition of these environmental drivers to decouple demographic effects of long-term carrying capacities from the short-term effects of environmental perturbations. Using species-specific demographic models followed by a community-wide meta-analysis, we evaluated how individual species responses scale up to shape community-level dynamics. The results reveal significant variation in species-specific responses to individual drivers. At the community level, our findings suggest that bird populations are mainly regulated by the long-term spatial constraints rather than short-term disturbances. Persistent environmental heterogeneity had the strongest positive demographic effect on birds, followed by temperature, forest dominance over croplands, and precipitation. In contrast, rapid temporal shifts in environmental heterogeneity and precipitation anomalies negatively affected population growth, whereas urbanisation consistently exerted a negative effect across both spatiotemporal dimensions. Our results highlight the significance of protecting existing heterogeneous and ecotonal habitats, as well as the need to incorporate features that enhance habitat heterogeneity into urban development. Article impact statementPreserving heterogeneous habitats is essential for the conservation of bird populations.

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Human land-use change drives co-occurrence of ecologically similar avian aerial insectivores in Southeast Asia

Garvin, A. M.; Sudoko, S. S.; Yahya, N. K.; Maruji, N. A.; Chai, R. R.; bin Dakog, K. A.; Kass, J. M.; Scordato, E. S.

2026-05-22 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.20.726292 medRxiv
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AimHuman land-use change contributes to biodiversity declines, but also creates new niches that facilitate novel biotic interactions. These interactions can reshape ecological communities and ecosystem function, yet remain poorly understood. Swiftlets and swallows in Southeast Asia present a classic example: coexistence is facilitated by fine-scale diet partitioning, with population sizes historically limited by available nesting substrates. However, several species now nest on manmade structures, particularly "nest farms" built to harvest edible swiftlet nests. We evaluated whether land-use change, especially the spread of nest farms, is leading to breakdowns in niche partitioning and increased competition among six sympatric swiftlets and swallows. LocationNorthern Borneo MethodsWe calculated geographic niche overlap using species distribution models (SDMs) with different environmental predictors, hypothesizing greater overlap when land-use variables were included. We then implemented joint species distribution models (JSDMs) to partition shared environmental responses from potential biotic interactions, predicting that competition would emerge as negative residual correlations. We used sightings from citizen-science datasets and structured surveys to evaluate the influence of climate, land-use, nest farms, morphology, and foraging behavior on species occurrences. ResultsSDMs that included land-use variables showed high niche overlap, suggesting that human activity homogenizes niches. The optimal JSDM, based on structured survey data, identified distance to nest farms as the strongest predictor of occurrence for all species, with species showing both positive and negative responses. Morphology and behavior had small effects, and residual correlations were weak, indicating limited unexplained biotic interactions. Main conclusionsHuman activity, through the creation of artificial nesting sites, broadly drives co-occurrence of swallows and swiftlets across our study region. These effects appear to operate primarily through environmental filtering rather than direct competition. Our findings reveal substantial and complex impacts of land-use change and anthropogenic nest sites on the distribution and composition of aerial insectivore communities.

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Extremely low effective population size in a captive-bred population: partial mitigation through management practices

Lamarins, A.; Waples, R. S.; Piironen, J.; Primmer, C. R.

2026-05-12 evolutionary biology 10.64898/2026.05.12.724519 medRxiv
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1Effective population size (Ne) is a critical parameter for evaluating the evolutionary and persistence potential of endangered populations and for designing sustainable conservation strategies. Captive breeding and release programs are widely used across taxa to reduce risk of extinction when natural reproduction is insufficient or no longer possible, making it essential to assess their consequences. We used the case study of the landlocked Saimaa salmon (Salmo salar), one of the most critically en-dangered salmonid populations in Europe, with unique evolutionary significance due to its isolation from other populations since the last glaciation. Using long-term demographic data (1969-2024) from wild-caught founders of a captive breeding and release program, we estimated the effective population size under multiple scenarios of variance in reproductive success. Across scenarios, Ne ranged from 33 to 81 individuals, representing 32%-75% of the census size. Captive breeding practices aimed at equalizing parental contributions during fertilization and early life stages increased Ne by 12% compared to natural reproductive conditions. However, variation in survival after early developmental stages, typically beyond direct management control, remained a key determinant of Ne. Despite recent increases in the number of founders, the population remains genetically vulnerable due to historical bottlenecks. These results highlight that while captive breeding programs can partially mitigate genetic risks, their effectiveness depends critically on both controlled and uncontrolled sources of variance in reproductive success. Strengthening such programs may require combining breeding management with habitat restoration and, where appropriate, genetic rescue to ensure the long-term evolutionary potential of such unique and endangered populations.

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Tracks, Maps and Gaps: A Testable Research Definition for Critical Chondrichthyan Areas, European Atlantic Insights

Renn, C.; Ciotti, B. J.; Sims, D. W.; Edwards, A.; Turner, R. A.; Hosegood, P.; Sheehan, E. V.

2026-05-05 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.01.722225 medRxiv
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Designing effective spatial management for chondrichthyans (sharks, skates, rays and chimaeras) requires incorporating critical areas, sites essential for population maintenance, such as reproductive and feeding areas. Yet most area-based measures have been developed without consideration of chondrichthyan habitat use. The Important Shark and Ray Area (ISRA) initiative has been pivotal in designating priority areas through a rigorous, consultative process. To complement this, our study offers researchers a testable definition for generating robust evidence to strengthen future critical area delineations and related management decisions. We define critical areas using three criteria: 1) relative frequency of use, (2) extended within-year occupancy and (3) repeated use across years. This framework enables objective comparison among candidate sites and is generalisable across different critical area types. The definition builds upon established early-life-stage habitat concepts and applies these to broader life-history functions. The utility of this framework is then demonstrated through a systematic review of contemporary peer-reviewed literature of critical chondrichthyan areas in the European Atlantic. The review highlighted 62 critical areas with Strong evidence and 41 areas of Moderate strength evidence, which informed the European Atlantic ISRA selection process. Research effort was concentrated in inshore areas, particularly around the British Isles and Portugal, with biases towards large, threatened and commercially valuable species, whilst chimaeras were notably underrepresented. Early-life stage areas were most frequently identified, whereas resting areas were rarely documented. Evidence patterns and biases are examined in the context of evolving critical area concepts to advance their development and improve the quality and breadth of future research. By outlining a testable definition, identifying key knowledge gaps, and proposing research and reporting guidelines, this work enhances the consistency, comparability, and spatial coverage of future chondrichthyan habitat research to support its application to conservation planning.

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Wolves in black: multiple introgressions and natural selection may explain melanism in Italian wolves

Fabbri, G.; Battilani, D.; Mattucci, F.; Galaverni, M.; Stronen, A. V.; Musiani, M.; Godinho, R.; Lobo, D.; Scandura, M.; Randi, E.; Fabbri, E.; Caniglia, R.

2026-05-09 genomics 10.64898/2026.05.08.723698 medRxiv
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Hybridisation between wild and domestic taxa can favour the spread of domestic alleles into wild populations through backcrossing. The complex interplay of random genetic drift, recombination, and selection can shape the fate of introgressed alleles. Maladaptive domestic variants are likely to be purged by natural selection, but others may persist across generations. It has long been known that the Apennine Italian wolf population, exposed to large numbers of free-ranging dogs, has experienced extensive introgression. The unusually high frequency of black wolves observed in Italy, compared to other European populations, may parallel patterns documented in North American wolves, where the melanistic KB allele at the CBD103 gene, of domestic origin, has spread over thousands of years of introgression. We tested whether the KB mutation entered the peninsular Italian wolf population via hybridisation and spread through adaptive introgression. Genome-wide analyses of black and wild-type (grey-coated) Apennine wolves showed no clear signatures of recent dog ancestry in most melanistic animals. Our ancestry reconstruction approaches identified two distinct KB haplogroups of domestic origin, suggesting multiple introgression events. Notably, we found molecular evidence consistent with balancing selection on the KB haplotypes, whose functional role, nonetheless, warrants further research. Therefore, the microevolutionary genomic and ecological consequences of wolf-dog hybridisation in Italy should be carefully investigated to inform appropriate science-based conservation management strategies.

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Chromosome-level genome assembly and annotation of the threatened marbled teal (Marmaronetta angustirostris)

Ortego, J.; Lopez-Luque, R.; Backstrom, N.; Green, A. J.

2026-05-14 genomics 10.64898/2026.05.12.723956 medRxiv
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The marbled teal (Marmaronetta angustirostris) is a widely distributed but declining waterfowl species, classified as Near Threatened globally and Critically Endangered in Spain. Despite ongoing conservation actions, including ex situ management and population reinforcement programmes, the genomic consequences of long-term captivity, inbreeding, and patterns of functional genetic variation remain unknown due to the absence of a species-specific reference genome. Here, we present the first chromosome-level genome assembly for this species. The genome was generated using PacBio HiFi long reads and Omni-C data, yielding a 1.15Gb assembly with a scaffold N50 of 76.95Mb. A total of 97.16% of the assembly was anchored into 36 chromosome-scale scaffolds, including the Z and W sex chromosomes. BUSCO analysis recovered 99.2% of conserved avian genes. Gene prediction was performed using both ab initio and homology-based strategies, resulting in 16,048 protein-coding genes. This resource provides a foundation for genomewide analyses of inbreeding, demographic history, and adaptive variation, and will support evidencebased in situ and ex situ conservation strategies for this threatened species.

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Climate change is predicted to simplify seed dispersal networks in the Cerrado

Rigacci, E. D. B.; Campagnoli, M.; Vizentin-Bugoni, J.; Christianini, A. V.; Peralta, G.

2026-05-05 ecology 10.64898/2026.04.30.721967 medRxiv
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O_LIAnimal-mediated seed dispersal is key for the maintenance and functioning of tropical ecosystems. Specifically, in the Cerrado, the largest Neotropical savanna and a global biodiversity hotspot, nearly 60% of plant species rely on animals for dispersal. C_LIO_LIClimate change threatens these interactions by affecting species distributions, reshaping communities, and potentially decoupling plants from their dispersers. Anticipating how such disruptions may alter seed dispersal networks is particularly relevant for understanding the resilience of future tropical ecosystems. C_LIO_LIHere, we combined empirical data on 139 pairwise plant-frugivore interactions with species distribution forecasts to build probabilistic interaction matrices under present and future climate scenarios, which were then used to construct 6,221 local seed dispersal networks. Using ecological niche modelling, we tested how climate change influences species range size and centroid displacement. Then, we evaluated whether such changes translate into losses of pairwise plant-frugivore co-occurrence. Finally, we investigated how these changes in occurrence overlap may affect key structural properties of future local seed dispersal networks. C_LIO_LIWe forecast that by the 2070s, under a business-as-usual climate scenario, species are likely to contract their ranges by 56 {+/-} 33% and shift their distribution centroids by 88 {+/-} 57 km within the Cerrado, leading to a 27 {+/-} 29% loss in plant-frugivore co-occurrence mainly driven by reductions in plant species distributions. At the community level, these losses will lead to smaller and more nested networks and specialized, indicating a structural simplification of seed dispersal systems in the Cerrado. C_LIO_LISynthesis: By combining empirical data on animal-mediated seed dispersal with forecasts of species distributions, we found that climate change may simplify frugivore-plant interaction networks in the Cerrado by decreasing species ranges and co-occurrence of partners. Our study demonstrates that future climate may pose a threat not only to species distributions but also to ecological interactions, such as seed dispersal, that are key to enabling climate-tracking by plants. Thus, preventing the simplification of interaction networks will be essential to conserve biodiversity in species-rich regions. C_LI