Conservation Biology

Native vegetation protection is a key strategy for delivering both biodiversity and climate benefits, and protected areas have been widely adopted to keep tropical biomes standing. Yet deforestation is driven by interrelated environmental and social factors, and the effectiveness of protected areas varies considerably across space. Here, we evaluated the impact of 802 protected and conserved areas in the Brazilian Amazon on preventing vegetation loss and avoiding carbon emissions over the past 40 years using statistical matching to address the location bias of protection. We found that protected areas were effective throughout the study period, reducing the probability of deforestation per km2 by an average of 0.5 percentage points per year. While the Amazon biome lost 14% of its native vegetation between 1986 and 2024, protected areas prevented the deforestation of 290,436 km2, nine times their actual internal loss. They also stored 45,336 Mt of carbon in 2016 (61% of the Amazon stock) and prevented the emission of 7,300 Mt of CO2 by 2024. Deforestation inside the areas and remoteness reduced their impact, while areas that were initially more preserved were more effective. Area size and age had no influence over impact once we analyzed the amount of avoided deforestation per size and age. Impact also varied across Brazilian states, highlighting the role of regional context. All three protection categories (conservation units, indigenous lands, and quilombola territories) showed a positive mean impact, indicating that each, in aggregate, contributes to reducing deforestation. These findings provide robust evidence of the substantial role of Amazonian protected areas in habitat conservation and climate mitigation, while underscoring that this contribution remains undervalued. We advocate for strategically expanding protection to areas of greatest potential impact, and for securing adequate funding to ensure protected areas can fulfill that potential.

AimBiodiversity-rich regions often lack the scientific infrastructure needed to document and curate their own biodiversity, creating inequalities in access to taxonomic reference material. We investigated how biological, institutional, and geopolitical factors shape the retention, extraction, and appropriation of reptile holotypes, the name-bearing specimens upon which species descriptions are based. LocationGlobal. TaxonReptiles. MethodsWe compiled a historical dataset of reptile holotype origins and destinations spanning 1758-2024 to reconstruct long-term patterns of retention and international specimen flows. We then quantified species-level holotype retention, holotype flows between country pairs, and country-level patterns of retention, appropriation, and network centrality for the period 1990-2024, and used generalised linear mixed models to assess the biological, institutional, and geopolitical determinants of these contemporary circulation processes. ResultsAlthough nearly 90% of reptile species described originated in the Global South, less than a quarter of their holotypes remain housed there. Historically, exported holotypes consistently outnumbered retained holotypes on a decadal basis until the early twenty-first century. Retention was promoted by local scientific capacity, institutional infrastructure, collector involvement in species descriptions, and environmental governance. In contrast, extraction was concentrated in highly endemic regions with limited scientific infrastructure and was associated with taxonomic revisions, socioeconomic interest, and disparities in political stability and colonial history. Appropriation of foreign holotypes was greatest in countries with high research investment, strong environmental governance, and historical geopolitical influence. Main conclusionsGlobal patterns of holotype circulation reflect a persistent geography of scientific inequality. The distribution of taxonomic reference material emerges from the interaction of retention, extraction, and appropriation processes, linking local biodiversity discovery to uneven global scientific capacity. Reducing these inequalities will require investments in taxonomic expertise, institutional infrastructure, and governance frameworks that promote more equitable stewardship of biodiversity knowledge and its material foundations.

Italy, one of Europe's most biodiverse countries, is expected to undergo landscape-wide nature recovery thanks to the EU Nature Restoration Regulation. National red lists represent critical instruments for informing conservation strategies at finer geographic resolutions and prioritizing taxa of national importance; yet the taxonomic completeness of Italian red lists remains unquantified in relation to national biodiversity. Equally, no systematic evaluation has been conducted on the representation of threatened and endemic Italian taxa within European and international conservation directives and treaties. We present the first comprehensive review of threat status and policy inclusion of Italian biodiversity, encompassing animals, plants, fungi, lichens, and algae. We cross-referenced national species checklists with Italian, European, Mediterranean, and global IUCN red lists, alongside policy annexes from the Birds and Habitats Directives, the Bern and Barcelona Conventions, and CITES. Our dataset comprised 76,845 taxa, of which 8,389 are endemic; yet red list assessments exist for only 10% of this total (7,349 taxa, including 1,700 endemics). Conservation policy coverage is even more restrictive: only 1,346 taxa are listed under at least one legislative instrument, with only half of these classified as threatened. This constitutes a compounding double bottleneck with most of the Italian biodiversity remaining both unassessed and unprotected and systematically biasing conservation policy toward an unrepresentative fraction of national biodiversity. We recommend accelerated national assessments and urgent establishment of a national biodiversity priority list founded on transparent prioritization protocols. This would complement ecosystem-based interventions mandated by the Nature Restoration Regulation while correcting for vertebrate-centred biases.

Aim: To forecast near-future arrivals of non-native terrestrial and freshwater vertebrates at the regional level. Location: Global (geopolitical regions worldwide, including countries and main administrative divisions). Methods: We compiled first regional record data and assembled functional and macroecological variables for 1,931 non-native vertebrate species. For each region, we identified recently arrived non-native species using retrospective windows of thirty and twenty years ending in 2015 (1986-2015; 1996-2015). We then fitted region-specific random-forest models classifying recently arrived species versus those not yet arrived using as predictors: (i) harmonised species traits (e.g., habitat, diet, body size and native-range attributes) and (ii) spread history, capturing time since first record elsewhere. Predictive performance was evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation, comparing full models with trait-only and spread-only variants. We also assessed relationships between predictive accuracy, predictor importance, and the geographic positioning and trade connectedness of regions. Finally, we predicted region-specific probabilities of arrival for species not yet recorded. Results: Forecasting accuracy was consistently high across regions and taxa, with AUC values above 0.9 in more than half of the focal regions. Full models substantially outperformed models using either predictor set alone, and spread-history-only models typically exceeded trait-only models. Relative importance of spread-history predictors declined with geographic distance to the focal region, whereas predictability was lower in highly trade-connected regions. Predicted near-future high-risk arrivals were dominated by birds and freshwater fishes and showed strong regional structuring. A small set of species ranked highly across many regions (e.g., birds: Phasianus colchicus, Acridotheres tristis, Amandava amandava, Colinus virginianus, Corvus splendens and Lonchura malacca; fishes: Coregonus peled and Oreochromis mossambicus; mammal: Oryctolagus cuniculus), suggesting substantial unrealised spread potential. Main conclusions: Near-future regional arrivals of non-native vertebrates are predictable from spread history and species traits. This enables scalable, updateable regional watchlists to support prevention, early detection and horizon scanning.

Connectivity is critical to sustaining endangered carnivores in speciose yet fragmented landscapes such as in the global south. Corridors to mitigate fragmentation are designed based on charismatic species or habitat-based approaches, but their multispecies effectiveness for maintaining functional connectivity remains poorly tested. We combined landscape genetic analyses across five sympatric carnivores - Panthera tigris, Panthera pardus, Prionailurus viverrinus, Felis chaus, and Melursus ursinus, to evaluate how landscape features shape functional connectivity in a globally important felid landscape. We then assessed the efficiency of existing tiger corridors and single-species surrogates for maintaining multispecies functional connectivity. Species exhibited contrasting responses to landscape variables, producing distinct resistance surfaces and connectivity corridors. Spatial similarity of connectivity between species pairs was highly variable (r = 0.14-0.93), but no single species effectively captured connectivity patterns of the broader carnivore community (maximum mean overlap of <0.7 across species). Moreover, genetically optimized corridors were at least 70% more efficient in capturing connectivity compared to existing tiger corridors, demonstrating mismatches between structural and functional connectivity. Our results highlight limitations of surrogate-based corridor planning and demonstrate that integrating multispecies functional connectivity can substantially improve conservation planning in human-dominated landscapes.

The impact of projected extinctions on global animal colour diversity remains unknown. Combining citizen science with self-supervised deep learning, we built novel representations of bird plumage colour patterning based on >125,000 museum specimen images covering 9,143 species. We demonstrate that losing currently threatened bird species will drive a disproportionate reduction in avian plumage diversity, with the most severe losses occurring in tropical and subtropical regions. Furthermore, while humans generally find non-typical plumage phenotypes more aesthetically attractive, threatened species are unexpectedly deemed less visually appealing despite their comparatively unusual plumages. Overall, our results highlight severe, imminent threats to the existing avian colourscape and raise critical questions about the future of animal colour diversity in a changing world.

O_LIWhen eradication is unfeasible, invasive predator control should evaluate how removal affects ecological responses by native species. Assessments often use total invasive predator abundance to evaluate prey responses, yet intraspecific variation in diet and space use means that some subgroups cause disproportionate impacts. Identifying these problem individuals, and the spatial scales over which their impacts operate, can enable targeted spatially explicit removal to maximise impact reduction. However, despite individual-level information is often already collected during trapping operations it is seldom included when analysing predator impacts, potentially biasing the conservation outcomes expected under blanket removal. C_LIO_LIWe use a novel framework and two decades of invasive predator control data to estimate how individual variation in residency status influences the distance-dependent impacts of invasive American mink Neogale vison on water vole Arvicola amphibius occupancy across two prey surveys. We also develop a sub-model to predict mink residency status for individuals with missing age data. C_LIO_LIThe probability of capturing adult mink decreased with elevation and years of control, indicating that long-term control altered the resident population and demographic composition of mink around water vole sites. C_LIO_LIDistance-dependent negative impacts of mink varied by residency status, becoming negligible at approximately 20 km from water vole sites for resident mink and 2 km for transient. The spatial scale of mink impacts was largest during the first vole survey when resident mink were more abundant, and declined rapidly for the second survey, when mink were less abundant and spatially clustered. Our results suggest that water voles have benefited mostly from reducing resident mink rather than the total population, especially in early control phases. C_LIO_LIManagers can use our framework to develop spatially explicit and impact-based strategies, not restricted to invasive species control, to construct empirically informed management buffers around populations of conservation concern. Long-term efforts will change the landscape and invasive predator contexts, and thus we recommend iteratively updating and re-evaluating management outcome evaluations. We argue that incorporating individual heterogeneity improves our understanding of ecological mechanisms influencing management success but that the suitability of targeted strategies should be evaluated for target socioecological contexts. C_LI

Accelerating global urbanization necessitates a better understanding of how to manage cities that promote biodiversity. However, we currently lack multi-year, multi-city studies, which limits a generalizable understanding of how both within and between city differences impact the spatial and temporal dynamics of urban biodiversity. Here, we tested hypotheses about the drivers of butterfly diversity within and across urban parks by applying Bayesian occupancy models to five years of iNaturalist community science data from 2,550 parks in 22 major U.S. cities. We found that cities with bigger parks supported more species per park, including more disturbance- and edge-avoidant species. This was driven by a positive effect of park size on butterfly species colonization rates. We also found that attributes of habitat quality (plant diversity within parks and tree cover surrounding parks) contributed to butterfly species occupancy. Park connectivity increased species persistence, but the overall effects on butterfly species occupancy varied across cities. Finally, we found that the total area of tree cover throughout a city, rather than the size or connectivity of individual parks, was the primary determinant of city-wide diversity: Increasing total tree canopy cover from below-average (~6%) to above-average (~22%) increased city-wide species richness by ~10%. These findings highlight the need for cities to maintain large parks while also increasing city-wide tree cover to support biodiversity across local to regional scales. By integrating high-resolution community science data across the continental U.S., this study provides mechanistic insight into how cross-scale processes shape urban biodiversity dynamics and identifies generalizable recommendations for improving urban conservation management.

Protected areas cannot halt biodiversity loss in isolation; integrating them with surrounding human-dominated landscapes is critical. However, this integration is challenged by substantial landscape heterogeneity at their borders, hindering our understanding of cross-border changes in ecosystem service provision. We introduce a novel framework for characterizing these dynamics by analyzing ecosystem service gradients along protected area borders. For 16 protected areas in the French Alps, we assessed 12 ecosystem services using a mix of established biophysical models and novel connectivity-based models for mobile species. These were aggregated into three stakeholder-driven domains reflecting respectively rural, cultural, and urban management priorities. Automated polynomial regression analysis classified borders into five gradient types. The most common were 'Decreasing Gradients', representing a decline in ecosystem services outside the protected area, and 'Increasing Gradients', with the opposite pattern. Our analysis reveals these patterns are driven by specific landscape configurations, uncovering frequent trade-offs between the three management priorities, where, for instance, landscapes supporting rural priorities often degrade cultural and urban ones. We also identify key opportunities for synergies, by identifying areas where ecosystem services for all three priority domains increase simultaneously outside the protected area. This spatially explicit typology provides a powerful diagnostic tool for designing targeted interventions, such as prioritizing habitat restoration where ecosystem services decline or managing agricultural landscapes to mitigate conflicts across management priorities, supporting a more effective integration of protected areas into the wider landscape.

The biodiversity crisis is exacerbated by persistent gaps in taxonomic, geographic, and conservation knowledge. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of Linnean, Wallacean, and conservation shortfalls in Rivulidae (Cyprinodontiformes), one of the most diverse families of Neotropical freshwater fishes. To this end, an extensive dataset was compiled, comprising 494 valid species, 51 synonyms, 3,419 occurrence records, and information on life cycle, distribution, and conservation status. The Linnean shortfall remains open: after 1975, the rate of species description increased sharply, and estimates indicate that 103 species remain undescribed (95% CI: 53-212). The year of species description was influenced by detectability and accessibility factors, with larger species, more widely distributed species, and species occurring in more densely populated areas being described earlier. The Wallacean shortfall was broad and spatially uneven: only 5.34% of the region was considered adequately sampled. The conservation shortfall was also substantial: 179 species are threatened with extinction, 69 species remain Not Evaluated, and 62 are Data Deficient. The mean time between taxonomic description and first IUCN extinction-risk assessment was 25.7 years. Moreover, 59.9% of species have no records within protected areas, including 69.3% of threatened species. These findings synthesize an urgent challenge: biodiversity knowledge and conservation shortfalls must be overcome simultaneously to protect species that are still being discovered, remain poorly documented spatially, and are restricted to habitats under intense anthropogenic pressure. The conservation of Rivulidae cannot wait for complete knowledge; action amid uncertainty is necessary to prevent both known and unknown species from disappearing.

In order to feed a growing global population without silencing nature, conceiving agricultural management strategies reconciling yield and conservation goals is key. Using numerical simulations of a metacommunity model, we explore the possibilities for compromise offered by spatial management strategies of farmed areas. Each strategy is characterized by its farming intensity, the proportion of farmed lands and their spatial aggregation. We show that achieving equitable yield-biodiversity compromise is difficult. While conciliatory strategies offering top yield and biodiversity are typically not possible, accepting slightly lower yields (ie, "Pretty Good Yield strategies") allows to recover substantial biodiversity. Such reconciliation possibilities are limited for species with small dispersal. Yield increases mainly through farmland expansion, whereas farming intensity strongly influences biodiversity, increasing it at low intensity before decreasing with further intensification. Finally, we demonstrate that reconciliation is easier if agricultural production relies on biodiversity through ecosystem services.

Although a strand of scholarship on pandemic prevention flourished in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, a theoretically informed empirical analysis of global governance entrepreneurs and practitioner perspectives is lacking. This gap is salient given the need to consider the nuances, political realities, and feasibility of real-world governance practice, particularly with the recent adoption of the Pandemic Agreement under the World Health Organisation. In this paper, nexus governance and regime complex theory guides an analysis of recommendations for potential real-world governance responses for pandemic prevention from wildlife trade for human consumption elicited from global governance entrepreneurs and practitioners through semi-structured interviews and document analysis. Recommendations on future governance practice largely focused on strengthening coordination across various policy sectors to improve use of existing institutional arrangements, with particular emphasis on better integration of the biodiversity conservation policy sector within global pandemic prevention governance, as well as reform of the World Organisation for Animal Health and the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Fauna and Flora. With governance deficits for prevention of pandemics emerging from the wildlife trade left by the now largely concluded Pandemic Agreement, a renewed research agenda on shared governance pathways becomes paramount.

Camera trap networks such as Snapshot Safari have generated millions of labelled wildlife images across Africa, enabling the training of deep learning models for automated species classification. However, deploying models trained in one African region to another remains poorly understood. To the best of our knowledge, this study presents the first systematic evaluation of geographic domain shift within the African continent for wildlife camera trap species classification, using the Machine Learning sub-field of Artificial Intelligence. We use three model architectures, each interacting with Snapshot Serengeti in a different way: BEiTV2is fine-tuned on Serengeti images as a supervised baseline; DINOv2 with FAISS uses Serengeti images as a retrieval index without any weight updates; and BioCLIP is a true zero-shot foundation model that receives no Serengeti training data at all. All three are then evaluated on two Southern African test sets, Snapshot Kgalagadi and Snapshot Kruger, as well as on locally collected wildlife photographs from Botswana. We conduct eight experiments covering in-domain baselines, cross-dataset transfer, data scaling, MegaDetector preprocessing, grayscale vs. colour image conditions, and per-species transfer analysis. This work provides the first empirical characterisation of intra-African domain shift across both supervised and zero-shot architectures, and offers practical guidance for conservation AI practitioners who need to deploy models across the diverse ecosystems of Southern Africa without collecting new labelled data.

Effective conservation depends on demographic metrics that reliably reflect species status, particularly population abundance. For elusive species occurring at low densities, however, such metrics remain difficult to obtain. Spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models are the standardized approach for estimating density in marked populations, but their data requirements, especially the need for multiple spatial recaptures across individuals, often limit applicability in small or data-poor populations. This constraint has resulted in knowledge gaps for some of the most vulnerable species, undermining evidence-based conservation planning and management. Using camera-trap data and SCR-derived density estimates from data-rich populations, we evaluated alternative, less data-demanding metrics and tested the hypothesis: Space to Event (STE), Mean Local Abundance (MLA), and Relative Abundance Index (RAI) exhibit predictable relationships with SCR-derived density; if supported, these metrics can reliably estimate density in populations where SCR models cannot be implemented. We applied this framework to the European wildcat (Felis silvestris), an elusive small felid with highly fragmented populations across Europe, for which density estimates are largely lacking despite growing conservation concern. Across 21 study areas spanning most of the species' range, our results indicate that European wildcats generally occur at lower densities than previously reported. SCR-derived estimates (n=10) averaged 10.32 {+/-} 11.56 inds/100km2, while STE enabled density estimation in five additional data-poor areas (mean 5.52 {+/-} 5.33 inds/100km2). STE showed a strong linear relationship with SCR-derived density (R2=0.98), supporting its use as a viable alternative when SCR is infeasible, although it tended to underestimate compared to SCR, especially at higher densities. In contrast, MLA and RAI showed weaker and non-linear relationships with SCR-derived density (R2=0.65), indicating substantially lower explanatory power and suggesting their estimates are more strongly influenced by confounding processes. By explicitly calibrating alternative metrics across a wide density gradient throughout most of the species' distribution, this study provides a transferable methodological framework for estimating density in low-density wildlife populations and the first continent-wide, standardized density assessment of a carnivore species. From a management perspective, our findings identify populations that may be most vulnerable, particularly those with the lowest densities, and highlight the need to prioritize absolute abundance monitoring.

Aims: Species' distributions are determined by the interplay between ecological niche and dispersal ability, constrained by biogeographical barriers. Bald-headed uakaris (Cacajao spp.) are highly specialized primates often associated with seasonally flooded forests. In this study, we used ecological niche models to assess changes in habitat suitability and geographic distribution of uakari species under future scenarios. Location: Western Amazonia. Methods: We integrated ecological niche models, current deforestation data, and dispersal ability to estimate habitat suitability under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios: intermediate (SSP2-4.5) and very high (SSP5-8.5) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Results: Our models project shifts in suitable conditions for all species. Three of the five species are projected to experience substantial reductions ([&ge;]62%) in suitable habitat conditions within their current ranges by 2050 under both future scenarios. Across the western Amazonia, up to 219,189 km2 and 211,276 km2 of land are projected to be unsuitable within the uakari ranges under the intermediate and very high emissions scenarios, respectively. This is particularly relevant for C. calvus, C. rubicundus, and C. ucayalii. At the species level, the uakaris may lose between 343 km2 and 84,531 km2 of their ranges in the intermediate scenario and 858 km2 and 76,216 km2 in the very high scenario. Shifts in suitability due to climate change are expected to vary from 6 to 191 km in the intermediate scenario and from 5 to 168 km in the very high scenario. Furthermore, the uakaris may lose between 0.5% and 8% of their current ranges due to deforestation in all scenarios. Main conclusions: Our findings reveal a high sensitivity of the uakaris to climate change impacts. It is projected that all species may experience contractions in the suitable areas and spatial suitability within their ranges by 2050, underscoring climate change as a relevant threat to these taxa.

1. Sandy beaches along urbanized coasts are increasingly managed through beach nourishment and hard infrastructure, yet these interventions often constrain natural dune-building processes. Along the Belgian coast, where much of the beach-dune interface is bordered by dikes, promenades and intensive recreation, strandline vegetation may provide an overlooked mechanism for retaining sand and initiating embryo dune development. 2. We assessed the potential for four pioneer dune plant species (Cakile maritima, Calamagrostis arenaria, Elymus farctus and Salsola kali) to establish, develop vegetation cover and contribute to sand accumulation along the Belgian coast. Using field surveys from 2017-2023, LiDAR-derived beach elevation and annual sediment dynamics, we modelled species occurrence and abundance/cover in low-disturbance reference zones and projected these relationships across the wider coastline. 3. Occurrence models identified where abiotic conditions allow plants to establish and persist until the late growing season, whereas zero-inflated abundance/cover models estimated expected vegetation development across environmental gradients. Predicted occurrence was widespread for several species, suggesting that the abiotic gradients modelled here are not the primary constraints on potential establishment across large parts of the coast. In contrast, expected abundance/cover showed stronger species-specific responses, particularly to sand accretion, indicating that sediment dynamics mainly affect post-establishment vegetation development rather than occurrence alone. 4. Independent field measurements of embryo dunes showed positive relationships between vegetation cover and local sand accumulation for all four species. When scaled using spatial predictions of potential abundance/cover, pioneer vegetation could retain substantial volumes of sand, with Cakile maritima contributing the largest share, followed by Salsola kali, Elymus farctus and Calamagrostis arenaria. Estimated volumes depended on assumptions about whether vegetation occurs as dispersed units or aggregated patches. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our results show that, even along a heavily urbanized and nourished coastline, abiotic conditions can support strandline vegetation and embryo dune initiation where disturbance is reduced. Management actions such as limiting trampling, adapting beach cleaning and protecting strandline vegetation could enhance the retention of nourished sand and support nature-based coastal defense. Rather than replacing engineered interventions, strandline vegetation may increase the efficiency with which available sediment is retained within the beach-dune system.

Antarctic benthic organisms are highly diverse and play a critical role in the Southern Ocean ecosystem. Despite decades of sampling, vast areas of the Antarctic continental shelf remain biologically unsurveyed due to logistical and financial constraints, limiting baseline knowledge essential for effective conservation planning. Species distribution models (SDMs) allow biodiversity to be inferred in the absence of biological data by linking benthic community patterns to environmental predictors. However, the resolution of the environmental predictors, particularly bathymetry, varies significantly between regions, casting doubt about how reliably SDMs can be used to predict into regions where only coarse-resolution data are available. Here, we show that SDMs trained on high-resolution data underestimate Antarctic benthic morphospecies richness by up to 18% when applied to aggregated coarse-resolution environmental data (and up to 50% when using satellite-derived ETOPO bathymetry). Using six systematically degraded versions of high-resolution multibeam bathymetry and annotated seafloor imagery across three Antarctic regions, we evaluate SDM performance both with and without additional environmental variables. High-resolution bathymetry captures terrain complexity most effectively, but we find that the spatial distribution of richness hotspots and the median richness per cell remain consistent, provided models are applied at the same resolution at which they were trained. Our results suggest that while high-resolution bathymetry may enhance local predictions, coarse-resolution data may be more robust for regional-scale predictions, such as those used for Antarctic shelf-wide spatial planning.

The Amazon is a mosaic of ecosystems, accounting for 13% of all known species globally, and responsible for providing a variety of ecosystem services, including a key role in global climate regulation. However, 18% of the Amazon forest cover has been lost completely and a further 38% degraded, threatening biodiversity and millions of local livelihoods. Currently, little is known about how this impacts the functioning of ecological communities. Here, we combine an energetic approach with biodiversity metrics to quantify ecosystem functioning in mammal and bird food webs across Amazonia, along a gradient of forest degradation linked to road proximity. We show that even under relatively low disturbance, ecosystem functions shift: carnivory increases closer to roads, driven by generalist species that persist under these conditions, whereas herbivory declines mainly due to reduced herbivore biomass and species richness. This suggests that processes associated with forest degradation can alter energy flow even where biodiversity metrics remain relatively unchanged, highlighting energetic approaches as sensitive indicators of ecosystem disruption.

Tropical dry evergreen forests (TDEFs) are a unique and highly threatened forest type of the dry tropics. Their restoration could be strengthened if native species demonstrate carbon sequestration comparable to widely used non-native trees. We assessed biodiversity and carbon sequestration in a restored TDEF in India, developed over 50 years from a largely barren landscape. The site now supports high woody-plant diversity, with 91 native species across 34 families. Aboveground biomass (AGB) averaged 66.91 +/- 41.2 Mg/ha comparable to seasonally dry tropical forests globally. Although native species were planted more recently and are shorter than non-natives, they contributed 23.86 +/- 23.4 Mg/ha to AGB and show potential for future increases in basal area. Given their comparable wood densities and capacity to attain similar heights, native species are predicted to sequester carbon at levels similar to non-natives in the long term. AGB was unrelated to species diversity. Overall, native TDEF species can achieve carbon storage while maintaining ecological integrity.

Tropical dryland ecosystems are highly biodiverse and fragmented and are experiencing significant anthropogenic and climatic changes. With increasing extremes in temperature and precipitation, coupled with significant alteration, these ecosystems are at greater risk of increased exposure and vulnerability to climatic change; however, little work has quantified the climatic shifts occurring within these ecosystems globally. Here, we aim to fill this gap by using the ERA-5 reanalysis and CHIRPS precipitation data to quantify changes in essential climatic variables in tropical drylands since 2000. Overall, we find that regional pressures differ, with tropical dry forests, savannas, and shrublands becoming hotter and drier in the Neotropics and parts of the Afrotropics and Australasia. By contrast, the tropical dry forests in the Indomalayan, Oceania, and Nearctic are experiencing hotter and wetter conditions. Globally, though, these ecosystems are experiencing more change than the global average, suggesting they may be approaching tipping points in their resilience, ultimately shrinking the area where they can survive.